Wednesday, January 04, 2006

CHEN'S NEW YEAR MESSAGE FORESHADOWS UNEASY 2006: ANALYSTS

Taipei, Jan. 1 (CNA) President Chen Shui-bian's New Year's Day address highlighting constitutional reforms and national identity shows he is determined to shake off the lame duck tag but may foreshadow an uneasy year ahead, political analysts said Sunday.

Chen opened his annual New Year message at the Presidential Office stressing unification with China can be an option for the people of Taiwan but not an ultimate goal for the country. Constitutional reforms, tax reforms, recovering illegal assets of political parties and other issues related to social justice are among topics Chen mentioned in the address.

"The president made it clear in the speech that he is not a lame duck president like most people think and he will not back down from the opposition, " said Hsu Yung-ming, an assistant research fellow at the Academia Sinica. "It also shows that Chen has set the tone and direction for the ruling party in the next two years as he and Ma will still be the dominant political figures in the coming year. And the 2008 presidential campaign has begun."

"I think this is one of the vaguest speeches Chen has given in years, " observed Shen Chih-jen, an associate professor from Soochow University. "I'm a little disappointed in the address. It neither details the concrete direction he wants to lead this country nor shows he is willing to offer conciliation to the opposition parties and China."

Hsu said Chen skipped the political matters on cross-strait relations and focused on economics only. "He replaced 'active opening, effective management' with 'effective management, active opening' to answer pro-independence critics."

Chen also did not shy away from voicing his differences with Kuomingtang (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who was at the address, Hsu added. "He [Chen] talked about the freedom of advocating Taiwan independence. He talked about constitutional reforms that include a possible referendum in 2007, forging a consensus on national identity, an option -- not a goal -- of unification with China, and of course the issue of illegal assets of political parties. His stands on these issues are all different from those of opposition and China and he is not afraid to show it."

Hsu noted, "It's one of the reasons why I think we won't be seeing any progress in cross-strait political relations and collaboration of the ruling and opposition party in the new year."

Chen also implied he will reshuffle the Cabinet when he talked about domestic issues and repeatedly mentioned the phrase "in the future" in the speech. On economics, Chen banks his hope on the second Economic Development Advisory Conference.

Shen foresees an uneasy year between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the KMT in the coming year because Chen "directly criticizes Ma on the unification and illegal assets issues." "While Chen's remarks may satisfied the fundamentalists that support the DPP, it's bad for the whole political atmosphere, " said Shen.

"The president didn't mention the 'three links' issue which most people expected to hear. He didn't even mention the direct cross-strait flights, " Shen said. "Chen always gave us something new in his past speeches, whether it was the 'four noes plus one' or 'a relationship of constructive cooperation.' But I didn't see anything similar this year."

Furthermore, Shen warned, "It looks to me like Chen is trying to bypass the legal procedure on constitutional reforms, which is very risky and can ignite the rivalry between pro- and anti-independence forces, when he mentioned that the new constitution can be initiated by civic groups and submitted for a referendum."

Shen summed up his observation: "I think we're looking at another year of opposition between both sides."