Sunday, August 27, 2006

CHINA'S MILITARY THREAT TO TAIWAN SERIOUS: ACADEMIC

Taipei, Aug. 24 (CNA) China's military threat to Taiwan is serious and if the current situation persists, there are only two feasible cross-Taiwan Strait scenarios in the future -- the fall of Taiwan or an armed conflict -- a Japanese professor warned at an international seminar Thursday.

For all China has done, a reasonable prediction would be "if Taiwan does not accept unification on China's terms, China will unify Taiwan by force in 10-15 years, regardless of Taiwan's government policy, " said Masako Ikegami, director of the Center for Asia Pacific Studies at Stockholm University in Sweden.

Ikegami made the prediction in a lecture titled "Anatomy of Peaceful Rise: Driving Forces Behind China's Grand Strategy" at the two-day seminar on the rise of China and Beijing's strategies and implications for the Asia Pacific, which was organized by Academia Sinica -- Taiwan's top research institute.

China wants to be recognized as a world-class power, said Mainland Affairs Council Chairman Joseph Wu in his opening remark, adding that this is why China "wants some international problems to be there so that it can play a role in international relations. " Wu was referring to the Iranian and North Korean issues.

"We need to encourage China to be more aggressive in living up to the expectations and responsibilities as a superpower, " Wu said.

Commenting on China's military threat to Taiwan, Wu said the priority would be to increase Taiwan's military budget and shore up a defensive capability to "show China that it can't take Taiwan quickly."

On the diplomatic front, there are only 24 allies left for Taiwan now, he said, which means that working with Australia and Japan is vital in order to maintain peace and stability in the Asian Pacific region.

According to Wu, co-existence with China in a peaceful way is "a long-term goal for Taiwan, " adding that if China becomes more democratic, it will be more attractive for Taiwanese people to think about political or economic integration in the future."

The seminar will conclude Friday.