Monday, February 04, 2008

U.S., China more concerned with referendums than presidential race

Taipei, Feb. 4 (CNA) Results of the two referendum proposals regarding Taiwan's bid for membership in the United Nations -- not the results of Taiwan's presidential election -- are of greatest concern to China and the United States, academics said at a recent seminar.

"It seemed to me that China does not care who will win the presidential election in March. It is more concerned with the referendums, " Chiang Chi-chen, an assistant professor at Soochow University, said in a seminar held Friday on the prospects of cross-strait relations in 2008.

Two referendums on whether Taiwan should apply for U.N. membership under the name Taiwan, or return to the world body under the country's official title Republic of China, or any other feasible name, will be held alongside the presidential election March 22.

The landslide victory of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) in the January Legislative election guarantees that the new president will have limited room to maneuver, regardless of who wins the presidency -- KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou or ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Frank Hsieh, Chiang said.

"There is little doubt that China will focus on the referendum issue this year, " said Wang Kun-yi, a professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.

There are four possible scenarios concerning the results of the presidential election and the referendum, said Chang Wu-ueh, chairman of the Friends of Hong Kong and Macau Association.

Beijing's preferred outcome will be seeing Ma elected with the DPP's proposal, which asks for popular approval of applying for U.N. membership under the name Taiwan, failing to pass, Chang said. He added that a Hsieh victory and passage of the DPP proposal is the scenario Beijing most dislikes.

While it's inappropriate to portray the DPP's proposal as an "independence referendum", which President Chen Shui-bian vowed not to hold in his 2000 inauguration speech, the U.S. and China both took it as a "provocative first step towards de jure independence", said Lin Cheng-yi, a researcher at Academia Sinica.

"Which was why both China and the U.S. have seen the referendum issue as more important than the presidential election, " Lin noted.

China is expected to keep pressuring Taiwan on the referendum issue through third countries ahead of the March election. It is also expected to try to influence swing voters and supporters of the KMT-led pan-blue alliance to vote in the referendum, Chang said.

It will best serve Taiwan's interests if at least one referendum passes, either that of the DPP or the KMT, Lin said.

"What kind of message will we be sending the world if both referendums fail to pass?" he asked.