Taipei, Jan. 25 (CNA) Taiwan should be optimistic but cautious about a proposed trade agreement with China with the approach of the first round of talks on the issue, with an "early harvest list" expected to hold the key to the negotiations, scholars said Monday.
After almost a year of preliminary studies and local political and economic debate, Taiwan will officially enter talks on the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) Jan. 26, when delegations from Taiwan and China will hold a one-day meeting in Beijing.
"We should look at the talks with optimism because Taiwan is finally taking the first step toward the negotiations, just like other countries around the world that are seeking to sign free trade agreements (FTAs) , " said Daniel Liu, a senior researcher at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER).
The optimism should also come from both governments' strong support and determination to push for a concrete deal, which is already a breakthrough in itself, Liu said.
The first round of ECFA negotiations, dubbed a "working-level meeting of experts, " will focus on procedural matters such as the overall arrangements for the framework agreement, the naming of the pact, and how functions and responsibilities should be allocated, said the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) , Taiwan's quasi-official intermediary body authorized to handle cross-strait dialogue and exchanges in the absence of official ties.
However, there are concerns. First of all, Liu said, Taiwan has expressed on several occasions that it intends to complete the deal in the first half of 2010, while China insists on not setting a timetable for negotiations.
Second, Taiwan and China have not been able to discuss an "early harvest list" that will designate a wide range of products that will enjoy lowered or zero tariffs immediately.
Anti-ECFA industries oppose the deal not because of ideology but because "it's a life and death thing for them, " Liu went on, saying that the government should reassure those businesses that they will be protected and compensated and give them as much time as possible to prepare for the impact.
Items that will reportedly appear on China's list include products such as auto parts, textiles, steel and cereal, while Taiwan wants to place petrochemical products on its list.
The "early harvest list" discussion could be difficult and will be a long process, Liu said, adding that some give-and-take will be necessary during the negotiation process.
While the Taiwanese government has pledged that it will not lift an existing import ban on 834 agriculture products and will not allow Chinese laborers to work in Taiwan, China's Ministry of Commerce claimed last week that Taiwan has failed to fulfill its obligations as a World Trade Organization (WTO) member because of its import ban on Chinese agricultural and industrial products.
"To fulfill the responsibility of the so-called `normalization, ' as China calls, it will be a heavy burden for Taiwan, " Liu said. In order to protect local agriculture, Taiwan might have to make concessions on industrial products, he said.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's tactical error of rushing the deal has put it at a disadvantage in the ECFA negotiations, said Wang To-far, a professor of economics at National Taipei University.
Because of that "fatal" error, Wang said, it will be almost impossible for the government to maintain the import ban on agricultural and industrial products.
Wang said China could make different demands to Taiwan because "mutual benefit is the key in any trade agreement... if it is not lifting the import ban on agricultural and industrial products, it will be something else."
SEF Vice Chairman and Secretary-General Kao Koong-lian will lead a 13-member Taiwanese delegation for the meeting in Beijing, while Zheng Lizhong, vice president of Beijing's intermediary Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), will head the Chinese delegation.
The Taiwanese negotiators will include Huang Chih-peng, director- general of the Bureau of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA), Lee Li-chen, chief of the Mainland Affairs Council's (MAC's) Department of Economic Affairs, and other key MOEA, MAC and SEF officials, according to the SEF.