Taipei, Feb. 22 (CNA) China prefers opposition Kuomintang (KMT) leader Ma Ying-jeou to win the 2008 Taiwan presidential election, which means Taiwan's independence will be almost unachievable even if the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) regains power in the future, a Hong Kong political analyst said in Taipei Wednesday.
Willy Lam, a Hong Kong citizen who has been a political analyst on China relations for nearly 20 years, was invited by the European Chamber of Commerce in Taipei (ECCT) to give a speech at its monthly luncheon.
Speaking on the future of Taiwan-China relations, Lam said China would prefer Taiwan's opposition leader, KMT chairman Ma
Ying-jeou, to win back the presidential office in March 2008. And China expects Ma to endorse the "One China" idea, he added.
"One or two years afterwards," he said, "China expects the 'three direct links' to be established, after which Taiwan's economy
will depend even more on China."
"Even if the DPP manages to return to power [in 2012], it will be very difficult for even the party's radical wing to achieve
independence because the basic weapon, or basic ingredients, will be diminished," Lam said.
Lam previously worked with the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong but was forced to leave the post by the Chinese government's influence. Later he worked for CNN's Asia-Pacific headquarters.
He is a professor at Japan's Akita International University and a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington D.C. foreign policy think tank.