Tuesday, January 29, 2008

China could suffer if it attacks Taiwan: U.S. expert

Taipei, Jan. 29 (CNA) China should take a careful look at the various scenarios that could occur if it decides to attack Taiwan, a U.S. military expert said Tuesday.

"Taiwan's armed forces are increasingly capable of responding to military threats posed by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) , " said Roy Kamphausen, director of the National Bureau of Asian Research (NSB), speaking from Tokyo in a digital video conference on the rise of China's military power.

"In an absence of U.S. participation, Taiwan would inevitably lose to the PLA, but would inflict tremendous losses, " he said, citing a recent report from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense.

There has been some dramatic progress in Taiwan's military capability in the last seven to eight years, according to Kamphausen.

"That should be a cause of increasing confidence for Taiwan's armed forces, " he said in the teleconference organized by the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT).

In his assessment of the PLA's rapid modernization, Kamphausen said the PLA is seeking a strategy to delay the arrival of U.S. forces in the Western Pacific, specifically in the Taiwan scenario.

Chang Ching, a navy captain and instructor at the War College of National Defense University, questioned whether the PLA's main focus will be Taiwan or denial of access to the U.S.

Kamphausen said the PLA will strike both at the same time. However, China needs to contemplate its decision because "striking the U.S. would definitely change the international security situation, " he went on.

The U.S. is not responsible for responding to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, nor is its support for Taiwan unconditional, Kamphausen pointed out.

The U.S. has no policy choice but to work with China, he continued, adding that his assessment on the rise of China's military power is that China does not think it needs to compete with the U.S. in the region.

But China "is desirous of a military befitting its status as a regional leader and rising global leader, " he said.