Taipei, Jan. 14 (CNA) The legislative elections marked the end of the political influence of President Chen Shui-bian and former President Lee Teng-hui, but the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) may regret winning by such a large margin, scholars said in a roundtable discussion Monday.
"The whole election was a vote of no-confidence against President Chen, " said Hsu Yung-ming, a professor at Soochow University.
"Mr. Chen has been out and should be out, " Academia Sinica researcher Michael Hsiao said of the impact of the legislative election on Chen's political career.
Prior to the election, Chen said he felt confident his Democratic Progressive Party would win between 45 and 50 seats in the legislative polls. The party ended up with only 27 seats in the 113-seat legislative body, however, dealing the president a lethal political blow.
The same could be said for Lee, whose Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) was shut out from the new legislature after tallying less than five percent of the total party vote needed to earn at-large seats, Hsiao said.
With the two heavyweights of the DPP-led "pan-green coalition" politically debilitated, DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh will be on his own to try and reverse the KMT's momentum in the remaining 68 days before the presidential election, Hsiao contended.
Raymond Wu, a professor at Fu Jen Catholic University, cautioned, however, that while the KMT's haul of 81 seats represented a great victory, it may have been better for the opposition party if it had won 65 to 70 seats.
"DPP supporters feel threatened by the huge setback and the KMT's dominance in the legislature. That is expected to stimulate a self-mobilized grassroots movement among DPP supporters, which will work against the KMT in the presidential election, " Wu said.
The KMT will also face challenges ahead of the March election that could expose internal divisions, including in February when it nominates candidates for legislative speaker and deputy speaker, Wu said.
Hsiao agreed that the KMT's huge win might have a boomerang effect because it reminded the older generation of the days when Taiwan was ruled under the KMT's one-party authoritarian regime and will allow young people to appreciate what one-party authoritarianism was like.
Wu agreed that, "one-party dominance is not necessarily healthy for the Legislative Yuan."
Hsu contended that the election's big winners were legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng and former President Lee, even if Lee's TSU suffered a resounding defeat.
Wang, he said, would retain his influence as the powerful leader of the legislative body, while Lee had successfully squeezed out Chen Shui-bian.
Other things to watch after the election include the realignment of senior political elites and Hsieh's ability to lead the DPP, Hsu said.