Saturday, December 25, 2010

Scholars predict China, DPP engagement in 2011

Taipei, Dec. 25 (CNA) China will talk more about the "1992 consensus" than the one China principle, while Taiwan's opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will seek dialogue with China without giving up its pro-independence stance in 2011, scholars predicted Saturday.

"China is expected to maintain its support of Taiwan's ruling Kuomintang (KMT) and President Ma Ying-jeou. At the same time, it will launch dialogue with the DPP as a hedging strategy, " Lai I-chung, a researcher of the Taiwan Thinktank, said in a symposium organized by the pro-independence Taiwan New Century Foundation.

China is likely to talk more about the "1992 consensus" and anti-Taiwan independence in the coming year rather than its long-standing one China principle, Lai said, because it does not want to jeopardize President Ma Ying-jeou's re-election bid in 2012 with a hawkish position.

The DPP, meanwhile, is expected to show pragmatism in its new China policy, which has not yet been formulated, in order to move to a more centrist position for the 2012 presidential election, according to Lai.

Lai forecast that the DPP, under the leadership of Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen, will present its new China policy based on a 1999 resolution stating that the DPP upholds that Taiwan is an independent country named the Republic of China.

The party will likely highlight the risk management of cross-Taiwan Strait economic exchanges and seek dialogue with China without prerequisites, he said, adding that China will also seek to engage the DPP.

But the engagement will be confined to scholarly exchanges rather than a party-to-party dialogue, since the DPP still advocates Taiwan independence, he said.

Yan Jiann-fa, a professor at Ching Yun University who served in the former DPP government, said the DPP is going through a transformation period, in particular in its China policy.

Citing a public opinion poll conducted by Global Views magazine in May 2009 revealing that 48.5 percent of the respondents favored eventual independence over 16.2 percent who preferred eventual unification, Yang said the DPP had realized a change of direction is needed for the party.

While the independence-unification issue has always been the most sensitive and critical issue in Taiwan's political debates, neither Taiwan nor China are in a hurry to touch upon the issue, Yan said.

"Beijing is not in a hurry to unify with Taiwan as long as Taiwan does not `stray too far, ' because it has its own domestic and exterior problems to handle, " he said.

Yan added that it would be better for Taiwan to focus on solving more urgent domestic issues at present, such as decreasing the wealth gap and improving national spatial planning, both of which affect the everyday lives of the people. (By Chris Wang) ENDITEM/J