Taipei, Dec. 31 (CNA) The signing of a historic trade pact with China and fierce competition in the five special municipality elections were the most significant developments in Taiwan this year, scholars said in a year-end symposium Friday in which they also predicted a tumultuous year ahead.
"The past year has been more about fear than pain for Taiwan. However, 2011 will be a troublesome year, " political pundit Nanfang Shuo said in the symposium organized by the Taiwan Competitiveness Forum to examine the domestic political and economic developments in 2010 and preview the coming year.
Taiwan's economy in 2010 has shown a strong recovery from the financial crisis that began in 2008, Nanfang said, but the rebound will not be as robust in 2011 because the global economy is expected to slow.
Politically, the atmosphere of cross-Taiwan Strait exchanges is expected to cool off in 2011 as Taiwan will be embroiled in a campaign year ahead of the 2012 presidential election, he said, adding that China will also try to engage in dialogue with the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
The exchanges are expected to slow down because President Ma Ying-jeou, who is expected to seek re-election, "is always more cautious and tends to appeal to the opposition electorate more during the campaign season, " according to Nanfang.
The scholars lauded the June signing of the economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China -- designed to liberalize cross-strait trade ties -- as the biggest breakthrough in Taiwan-China relations of the past six decades.
While legislator Lo Shu-lei of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) warned that pinning Taiwan's economic hopes solely on China could be dangerous and that the long-term effects of the ECFA remain unknown, George Tsai, a political scientist at Chinese Culture University, said Taiwan's trade interdependence on China could also be "healthy" because China will have to have second thoughts on military action against Taiwan.
Taiwan also needs to recognize that its trade relations with China "will go from partnership to competition" because several strategic industries on both sides overlap with each other, he said.
On domestic political issues, the streamlining of government agencies from 37 to 29 will begin 12 months from now and the creation of the four new special municipalities -- bringing to five the total number in the country -- is expected to solidify the system of two levels of government in Taiwan, said Thomas Peng, an associate professor at National Taiwan University.
"The measures, if successful, are expected to improve administration efficiency, " said Peng.
Former DPP Legislator Lin Cho-shui questioned whether the five municipalities will be able to function as "regional hubs" to boost the economy in their areas, saying that the design of the system is purely politically motivated without sufficient deliberation, because the five cities pale in comparison with true mega cities like Shanghai and Tokyo.
Looking at the coming year, the scholars agreed that the increasing wealth gap, the transformation of Taiwan's economy and the continued exodus of local manufacturing industries will be among the issues at the top of the government's agenda in 2011. (By Chris Wang) ENDITEM/J