The mayoral election in the new Kaohsiung special municipality may have a clear favorite, but a split in the stronger political party in the region could still have unpredictable consequences come Election Day on Nov. 27.
Kaohsiung City and neighboring Kaohsiung County will be merged into a greater Kaohsiung municipality after the election, making it the second largest administrative district in Taiwan, with a population of 2.77 million.
Incumbent Kaohsiung City Mayor Chen Chu of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is the clear frontrunner in the race, maintaining leads by substantial margins over her two main rivals, but talk of "strategic voting" has added some intrigue to the race.
Chen's main threat appears to be incumbent Kaohsiung County Magistrate Yang Chiu-hsing, who announced on Aug. 9 he was withdrawing from the DPP to enter the race as an independent after losing the DPP primary to Chen.
Yang, who has served two terms as county magistrate from 2001 to the present, and Chen, who assumed office in 2006, both believe they have solid chances of winning for two reasons: tradition and performance.
The greater Kaohsiung area is considered a DPP stronghold. Kaohsiung City has been held by the party since 1998, while Kaohsiung County has not seen a Kuomintang (KMT) magistrate during the last quarter century.
In past elections, the KMT and the DPP have had roughly the same support rates in Kaohsiung City, while the DPP has fared much better in Kaohsiung County.
Both candidates have also been popular and enjoyed considerable support during their terms. Yang had the highest approval rating from his constituents and Chen the third highest in a survey conducted this year by CommonWealth Magazine on how residents of 21 administrative districts saw their leaders.
A former civil engineer and legislator, the 54-year-old Yang earned the nickname of "The Southern Little Giant" for his hard work to strengthen the local economy and improve the mountainous county's infrastructure.
He also had to shoulder some of the massive responsibility of reconstruction and recovery after Typhoon Morakot killed hundreds and wiped out several mountain villages in the region in August 2009.
Chen, 60, is known for her dedication to human rights during Taiwan's struggle for democracy in the 1970s and 1980s and her status as one of the founding members of the DPP.
She also served as chairman of the Council of Labor Affairs under the previous DPP administration.
Chen reached the peak of her career after the city's organization of the 2009 World Games was widely considered a success.
She ran into trouble later, however, for inviting the Dalai Lama and Uyghur political activist Rebiya Kadeer for visits, a move that infuriated China and led to its blockage of Chinese tourists visiting Kaohsiung.
With most attention focused on the battle between Chen and Yang, KMT candidate Huang Chao-shun has seemed to be marginalized, despite having served as a legislator representing Kaohsiung City for the past 17 years.
When Yang split from the DPP, the conventional wisdom was that the internal strife would help Huang because it would divide DPP voters.
But polls taken in recent months indicate Yang's candidacy has drawn at least as much support from the KMT support base as the DPP's, leading to concerns in both the Huang and Yang camps that their supporters will engage in "strategic voting" to mount a challenge against Chen.
In Taiwan, strategic voting refers to when voters decide to abandon the candidate they support to vote for the candidate they think has a better chance of beating a disliked rival.
The campaign has also seen Huang file legal complaints against both of her rivals. She accused Chen of malfeasance that left part of the city flooded by heavy rains brought by Typhoon Megi in September, and she took Yang to court for using public resources in his campaign.
The Kaohsiung District Prosecutors Office decided, however, not to press charges against Yang and Chen.
Chen also accused Yang of mishandling the typhoon disaster in his county. By Chris Wang, CNA Staff Reporter enditem/ls