Taipei, Nov. 25 (CNA) The results of the Nov. 27 municipality elections in Taiwan will help shape the wider political landscape over the next few years, scholars said in Taipei Thursday.
Although they are just local elections, the outcome will have implications for President Ma Ying-jeou and his China policy as well as for the two main political parties in Taiwan, the scholars said in a forum held by the think tank Taiwan Brain Trust.
For starters, they said, the share of seats and votes in the five municipality elections will give an indication of the national standing of the two main competing parties -- the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) -- and their chances in the 2012 presidential elections.
The results will also be viewed as an endorsement or rejection of Ma's policies of deregulation, liberalization and reconciliation, particularly with regard to China, the scholars said.
If the KMT scores at least a 3-2 win in the five races, it will be seen as a vote of confidence in Ma's general policies and performance, said Joseph Wu, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University.
On the other hand, a 3-2 win for the DPP will give it "the right momentum to contest the 2012 presidential election," he said.
China, meanwhile, will be closely gauging the elections in Taipei City, Xinbei City, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung in order to plan its future moves, he said.
"For China, the share of votes may be a better indicator of the 2012 election outcome" since the electorate in the five cities make up almost 65 percent of Taiwan's total population of 23 million," Wu said.
China will be looking for a clue to Ma's chances of retaining power in 2012, but is not likely to react strongly to the election results but rather will be trying to play down their importance, said Wu, a former chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan's top China policy-making body.
Liu Shih-chung, a research fellow for national security affairs at the Taiwan Brain Trust, said "a KMT victory would increase the chances of both the party and its Chinese counterpart to at least create some atmosphere for political talks in Ma's second term. "
Meanwhile, a DPP victory would signal a rebirth of the party after its catastrophic loss in the 2008 presidential election, Liu said.
For at least two of the candidates in the elections, the poll could serve as a launch pad to bigger ambitions, one of the scholars said.
The neck-and-neck race in the two northern cities of Taipei and Xinbei is like a presidential primary for the DPP, according to Hsu Yung-ming, an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Soochow University.
The DPP candidates, Su Tseng-chang in Taipei City and DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen in Xinbei, are the two favorites to win the party's nomination for the 2012 presidential election, Hsu said.
They are seeking not just mayoral seats but also wider electoral support, he said.
He expressed the view that this time voters are more focused on economic issues and the candidates themselves rather than on the thorny independence-unification issue that has dominated the polls in the past.
The forum was held under the theme, "The special municipality elections: the possible impact and implications" and was attended by more than 20 foreign representatives. (By Chris Wang) enditem /pc